![]() The novel describes a giant boat called the Titan which everyone considers unsinkable. Written 14 years before the Titanic sank, 11 years before construction on the vessel even began, the similarities between the book and the real event are eerie. In 1898, Morgan Robertson wrote a novel titled ââ,¬Å"Futility.ââ,¬Â They were both killed on a Friday while sitting next to their wives, Lincoln in the Ford Theater, Kennedy in a Lincoln made by Ford.īoth men were succeeded by a man named Johnson ââ,¬â€œ Andrew for Lincoln and Lyndon for Kennedy. Lincoln had a secretary named Kennedy, and Kennedy had a secretary named Lincoln. Both were shot and killed by assassins who were known by three names with 15 letters, John Wilkes Booth and Lee Harvey Oswald, and neither killer would make it to trial. Kennedy were both presidents of the United States, elected 100 years apart. The Truth: You tend to ignore random chance when the results seem meaningful or when you want a random event to have a meaningful cause.Ībraham Lincoln and John F. The Misconception: You take randomness into account when determining cause and effect. Do more research.ĭata-based decision making can be a tremendous gift for your business, but only if you let the data tell the story for you, not the other way around.Ok, so this isn't really "math", but it's sort of related in a way, and is relevant to gamblers and system players. Stay away from averages if you can avoid itĮvaluate the data against your hypothesis and against your anti-hypothesisĪbsence of evidence is not evidence of absence. It relies on the inputter as well as a set of variables specific to your business.ĭata is a tool. You allow for variances in your data because no data is perfect. You are looking for what statisticians refer to as a 95% confidence level which means that 9.5 times out of ten this result will be the same. If the answer to both questions above is yes you’ve fallen victim to the sharpshooter fallacy.Ĭonclusions from data should be exact and specific. Next, use the same dataset to verify the opposite of your hunch. Next, compile a sample data set based on your hunch. You know it without the benefit of being able to explain it. The bigger your dataset gets, the harder it is to identify where the simple insights are gathered.ĭrawing conclusions from your data always starts with a hunch. A grandparent holding their infant octuplet grandchildren will have an average age of 18. Place your feet in the desert and your head in the arctic, your mean temperature is 75. The danger comes from three things:ġ) Finding data to fit your pre-conceived conclusions (cherry picking)Ģ) Assuming that because you can’t find it, it doesn’t existģ) Averages or targeting the “mean”. The challenge always comes from the interpretation of the data. It gives a person a clear, objective picture of their reality. It illustrates how people look for similarities, ignoring differences, and do not account for randomness.ĭata is a wonderful thing. The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is a logical fallacy based on the metaphor of a gunman shooting the side of a barn, then drawing targets around the bullet hole clusters to make it look like he hit the target. When reviewing your data, don’t fall victim to the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. The benefit or danger of a tool comes from the person wielding it. Like a shovel, it can dig a hole or it can kill zombies. The Manager says to the accountant, “What’s 2+2?” The accountant replies, “what do you want it to be?”ĭata is a tool. ![]()
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